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ETH Valuation Model

Live Data
ETH Price i ETH Price Current market price of Ethereum from CoinGecko. Auto-updates every 60 seconds. The baseline for comparing against model valuations.
$0.00 +0.00%
Market Cap i Market Capitalization Total value of all ETH in circulation (Price × Circulating Supply). Used in NVM ratio calculation. Key input for network value metrics.
$0B
Metcalfe Value i Metcalfe Fair Value Model-derived price using Metcalfe's Law (V = A × n²). Represents fair value based on network activity. Compare to actual price to find over/undervaluation.
$0.00
Price vs Model i Price Deviation How much current price differs from model value. Negative = undervalued, Positive = overvalued. Key signal for identifying buying/selling opportunities.
0%
Odlyzko Floor i Odlyzko Floor Lower bound valuation using V = B × n × log(n). Represents the conservative "utility only" value without speculation premium. Price rarely stays below this level for long - acts as strong support.
$0.00
Conf. Lower i Confidence Band Lower 120% of Odlyzko value - the lower edge of the "most likely" trading range. Price spending time below here indicates extreme undervaluation. Historically, ~85% of trading occurs above this level.
$0.00
Fair Value i Fair Value (√M×O) Geometric mean of Metcalfe and Odlyzko values: √(M × O). Represents the mathematically "neutral" valuation between optimism and pessimism. The natural equilibrium point. Price tends to oscillate around this level over full market cycles.
$0.00
Conf. Upper i Confidence Band Upper 80% of Metcalfe value - the upper edge of the "most likely" trading range. Price exceeding this indicates speculative premium. Historically, ~85% of trading occurs below this level.
$0.00
Blended Value i Blended Value Your custom valuation: (Weight × Metcalfe) + ((1-Weight) × Odlyzko). Adjust the Blend Weight slider to set your market outlook. Use this as your personal "fair value" target based on your bullish/bearish stance.
$0.00

Network Metrics

400,000
200K 800K
2,500,000
500K 5M
1.0x
0.5x (Settlement) 2x (Ecosystem)
Total Adjusted DAA (n) i Total Adjusted DAA The final 'n' value used in Metcalfe's Law. Calculated as: L1 DAA + (L2 Weight × L2 DAA). This is the network size input for all valuation formulas. The most critical input - n² means small changes here have large impacts on valuation.
2,900,000

Model Coefficients

4.5e-2
1e-2 10e-2
25
10 100
50%
Odlyzko (Bear) Metcalfe (Bull)

Valuation Bands i Valuation Bands Chart Shows the "fair value channel" between Metcalfe (upper bound) and Odlyzko (lower bound) across different DAA levels. Current price and DAA position marked. Price tends to oscillate between these bands. Above Metcalfe = overvalued, Below Odlyzko = extremely undervalued.

Metcalfe Odlyzko Fair Value Blend Confidence

Scenario Analysis i Scenario Analysis Projects ETH price based on different DAA growth assumptions. Bull (+50%), Base (+20%), Bear (-10%). Uses current Metcalfe coefficient. Helps visualize potential upside/downside based on network growth scenarios.

DAA Growth i DAA Growth Rate Projected change in Total DAA for this scenario. Bull: +50% growth, Base: +20%, Bear: -10% decline.
+50%
Target Price i Target Price Metcalfe-derived price if DAA reaches the projected level. Since V ∝ n², prices scale non-linearly with user growth.
$8,800
Upside i Price Upside/Downside Percentage change from current price to target price. Positive = potential gain, Negative = potential loss.
+193%

NVM Ratio i Network Value to Metcalfe Formula: ln(Market Cap) / ln(DAA²). Tracks divergence between price and user growth. Similar to P/E ratio but for networks. When this ratio spikes, price has outpaced fundamentals. When it drops, the network may be undervalued.

1.15
ln(MC) / ln(DAA²)
Buy Neutral Sell

Z-Score Signal i NVM Z-Score Measures how many standard deviations the current NVM ratio is from its historical mean. Formula: (NVM - μ) / σ Z < -1: Buy Zone (75% historical accuracy). Z > +2: Sell Zone (82% accuracy). The primary trading signal.

-1.2
Standard Deviations
-2 -1 0 +1 +2
BUY SIGNAL

NVM Z-Score below -1.0 indicates network is undervalued relative to user growth.

Historical Context

Buy Zone (Z < -1) 75% accuracy
Sell Zone (Z > 2) 82% accuracy
Model R² (2019-2024) 0.91

About This Model

Metcalfe's Law (n²)

Network value scales with the square of active users. This represents the upper bound where all connections have value - typical during bull markets.

Odlyzko's Law (n·log(n))

A more conservative model accounting for bounded human attention. Serves as the valuation floor during bear markets.

L2 Aggregation

Total DAA combines L1 and L2 users with deduplication. The weight factor adjusts for economic capture differences between layers.

Data sources: CoinGecko (price), research estimates (network metrics). For production use, integrate Dune Analytics or Glassnode for real-time DAA.