Occurrences, not a forecast

A trade wins 75% of the time for +$60 and loses 25% of the time for −$140. What is its expected value?

• +$45
• +$10
• −$35

Your first ten trades of a new method include six losses. What should you conclude first?

• The method's true win rate is 40%
• Ten trades are too few to measure the win rate; check whether you followed the rules
• A run of wins is now due