What This Path Builds Instead of a Bot: The Study Plan and Trial Log

What makes a study plan pre-registered?

• It is long and detailed
• It was written and dated before any test result was seen
• It was reviewed after the results came in

With one version tested at a 5% threshold, the chance of a lucky pass is 5%. With two independent versions, what is the chance at least one passes by luck?

• 10%, exactly
• 9.75%, which is 1 − 0.95²
• 5%, because each test is still at 5%